Monday, 12 October 2015
How Scotland dodged a Bullet ....Oil would NOT "just be a bonus" but an essential part of its economy
"How Scotland dodged a Bullet" , Is a written article and facts on our lucky escape by a respected economist David Smith on how the SNP tried to fool us by providing deliberate over optimistic Oil revenue , deliberate over optimistic Oil price predictions per barrel and deliberate neigh impossible to achieve National business growth projections to fill Scotlands £9 billion and growing Budget spending deficit (potentially now more than £11 billion and still rising with falling Oil tax revenues).
"The Scots, of course, voted no, by 55.3% to 44.7%, to my considerable relief and I hope theirs. In doing so, they gave us a Scottish version of The Great Escape. They dodged a bullet. Had Scotland voted for independence, its economy would be in deep trouble. Nicola Sturgeon, its first minister, would not be attacking George Osborne’s austerity but announcing more of it in an effort to prop up Scotland’s chronically weak public finances."
"Why was it such a lucky escape for Scotland? The main reason, and the biggest change since the independence vote, has been for North Sea oil. The Scots were promised a future of high oil prices and rising production. The reality has been plunging prices and a crisis in the North Sea. The Scots were told that Westminster was keeping secret from them the true picture of future North Sea riches. If anything was being kept secret, it was how bad it would be.
A few numbers illustrate the point. In June the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) issued its latest long-term “fiscal sustainability” projections. As far as North Sea tax revenues are concerned, their conclusion was that it would be wise to plan for nothing from 2020 onwards. Total North Sea revenues will be just £2.1bn in the 20 years from 2020, it said, equivalent to a single year’s revenue in a bad year now.
Nor is there any sign of things getting better. Oil & Gas UK, in a report a few days ago, said that 65,000 jobs have been lost in the North Sea since 2014. Exploration is at its lowest since the 1970s and investment is plunging. Even last year, when the plunge in prices was not complete, “more was spent on UK offshore oil and gas operations than was earned on production”.
The response of the Scottish government to this has followed a well-worn path. The North Sea was only ever a “bonus” for Scotland, not the lifeline. The trouble is, at least as far as the public finances are concerned, it is not true. The latest official figures, Government Revenue and Expenditure Scotland (GERS) show that without North Sea revenue, Scotland had a Greek-style budget deficit of 12.2% of GDP in 2013-14. With that revenue, the deficit came down to 8.1% of GDP, still higher than the overall UK deficit of 5.6% of GDP.
Such is the weakness of Scotland’s public finances that it is a very long way from the balanced budget Armstrong says it would be required to follow. Allowing Scotland to borrow on the markets to give it more flexibility would, because of its fiscal weakness “and clear intention to borrow and spend more” attract the attention of the ratings agencies and possibly affect the UK’s credit rating as Scotland’s ultimate backstop.
See the whole article here
Pay attention to the words above "Greek-style budget deficit " in particular and think carefully about what the population of Greece went through some months ago, because in an Independent Scotland this potentially is the same territory that the carefree and shameless SNP is wanting to get us into, carefree with their willingness to take on National debts rather than cutting welfare or increasing personal income taxes to balance the books, carefree with gambling on Your, your Children and your Grandchildrens financial futures.. all for what ? Absolutely nothing but Personal political power, high salaries and the big ego's of a group of people with a Utopian ideology which only they have a desperate need to fulfill ...but to whose benefit and long term cost really ? Not mine thats for sure, the financial facts of the Scottish economy expose all Alex Salmond's and his henchmen's financial promises of riches in an post Indy world as a complete utter sham.
We have seen a well worn pattern by the SNP now, particularly since the Independence Vote (that they have already lost..as a reminder ...seeing how they seem to have forgotten that fact.) when they fail in anything or get caught out lying they either simply try to pin the blame on Westminster or attempt to completely ignore the issue pretending it simply doesn't exist. Well they cannot blame the over-optimistic data they produced on the Independence Manifesto "Scotlands Future" on anyone at all other than themselves and its about damn time the population of Scotland woke up to the fact that the SNP simply tried to fool the nation with ridiculous promises of future wealth whereas the reality actually looks the polar opposite ...pretty bleak ahead indeed if they lead us into either FFA or Independence.
Are the SNP themselves facing up to this reality, no ...not at all, the fairly recent new SNP brainwashing attempt of "Oil is only a bonus" is supposed to placate anyone from thinking about how the budget deficit with be met, however "Oil is only a bonus" it is simply yet another SNP lie ...another stalling tactic while they attempt to hang on to power from continuing to feed the faithful with never ending hopes of another Independence Referendum (which the SNP seniors know very well they will lose again) in exchange for Votes in the Holyrood Scottish Elections in early 2016 so that they can once again hang on to personal political power for another session. Why should the SNP seniors worry about the Scottish economy ? After all in the Indy World that they seek they WILL be the new elite, the new Imperial masters we will all have work for to keep them in the style they have become accustomed to living in, better salaries with much less political responsibility that most UK politicians have ...now i'm begining to wonder who really are the fools in this whole situation ?
But only tonight we have Salmond again preaching that if another Indy Ref were run today that it would return a YES result , does this man have no shame ? On what ridiculous idea does he arrive at that conclusion or is this once again merely an another pitiful diversionary tactic to feed the unquestioning faithfull and keep them onside rather than tackle the real problems of the Scottish economy..reminds me of Nero fiddling while Rome burnt. Isn't it really time that Scots woke up to the childish antics of the SNP and disposed of them ? http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/alex-salmond-scotland-would-vote-yes-if-another-referendum-w?utm_term=.syJq3jEEWg#.evNO9BdAD
" A yes vote would have plunged Scotland into a deep depression"
"The first anniversary of the Scottish referendum on independence seems a useful point at which to take stock of the economic issues that would be facing an independent Scotland if it had voted ‘Yes’ in the referendum. There were two key strands to the Scottish National Party’s economic strategy which indicate that a Yes vote would have resulted in austerity in an independent Scotland the likes of which has been rarely seen in a developed country and which would have plunged the country into a deep depression."
"Clearly the level of austerity facing an independent Scotland would be unprecedented and unsustainable resulting in a classic currency/ financial crisis with the Scottish economy being plunged into a deep depression that in all likelihood would be generational in length.
To put it into context – the current austerity programme pursued by the Conservative government across the UK would be seen as a picnic compared to the retrenchment of the state and the loss of tax base facing an independent Scotland. Since the government of an independent Scotland would in all probability have to monetize its debt this would add an extra layer of pain."
This full article can be read by Clicking Here
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